Former Minister of Finance, Tendai Biti has questioned the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s growth forecast for Zimbabwe.
The IMF recently said Zimbabwe’s economy will grow by 6% this year, basing on higher agricultural output, a recovery in energy, manufacturing and construction sectors.
But, Biti says the IMF prediction is over ambitious, taking into account a number of factors.
He points out that even the World Bank itself predicted a 3% growth for the country.
“A better agriculture season is not a basis for a major rebound simply because agriculture s share of GDP had declined to less than 8%.
“But real issue is true cost of financing that agriculture, given rot associated with Command Agriculture& the Presidential scheme,” he says.
He adds that the question is what was cost of financing agriculture and if that equals to output.
“Elephant in room will always remain the total mismanagement of FX regime.
“SI 127 of 2021 will have catastrophic consequences on an already battered business cycle. Ignoring SI 127 is either ignorance or mendacity,” he says.
Biti maintains that Zimbabwe essentially has 4 multiple & competing economies , the dominant informal US$ economy, the formal US, the RTGS economy & the Ecocash economy.
He adds that this is hallmark of dislocation & distortions but makes any official data suspect and illegitimate.
“To ignore this is disingenuous Zimbabwe’s endemic levels of leakages, corruption militate against any buoyant growth projections,” he says.