Despite his denial for third term, President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa had for long planned and made moves to remain in power beyond his constitutional term.
According to renowned Zimbabwean lawyer Brighton Mutebuka goes through Mnangagwa’s roadmap:
- The 1st stage was to run for the 2023 Presidential election independently of the party structures- with FAZ being in charge.
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That way he would not “owe” anything to the party or the military.
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Once the result was secured/ procured, the 2nd stage involved destroying CCC via Tshabangu while incorporating other CCC renegades.
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This achieved 2 things: i. clearing the path for the parliamentary cohort needed to pass any legislation there and, ii. to remove the obstacle of a strong opposition led by Chamisa being in place to possibly coalesce with the Chiwenga faction.
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The ZANU PF Congress was the 3rd stage. It was preceded by behind the scenes choreography and commandeering via Mudha & his motley crew.
As we speak, ED secured a binding 2030 resolution, notwithstanding his public protestations of disinterest!
- ED’s vast economic interests & his family’s – which sprawl across the entire SADC region & beyond means that his political fortunes are tied to his economic interests & there is a real risk of an Armageddon outcome if he loses the protection that incumbency brings!
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There can be no doubt that the brinksmanship that we have witnessed has ruptured ED & Chiwenga’s personal & working relationship, with trust being the most precious ingredient that has been lost.
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The Marry Mubaiwa-Chiwenga criminal trial & conviction expressly linked ED to a sensational plot to eliminate Chiwengwa via the South African Doctor’s testimony.
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It’s irrelevant what the truth is. The fact that Chiwenga persisted with such a case and was determined to see the end notwithstanding the political sensitivities involved means he is convinced that there was such a plot – with the conviction appearing to vindicate him in his mind.
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By extension, the ordeal that Marry has endured could potentially be attributable to Chiwenga’s total belief in the existence of such a plot.
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Should this analysis be accurate, then it follows that Chiwenga could, via the burning grievance, be even more motivated to secure the crown – and, if he does – it’s anybody’s guess how be proposes to address the above.
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For the same reasons, a Chiwenga presidency could be an unfathomable proposition for ED & his family, as he could very well end up at the receiving end of the equivalent of the Dos Santos nightmare in Angola where – on paper – a trusted party figure ended up tormenting & dismantling the Dos Santos corruptly gained economic empire & stampeded Dos Santos into exile, from where he died!
Conclusion
For all of the above reasons and many more, ED & Chiwenga still appear primed for an unavoidable titanic scrap/ showdown – perhaps literally a life & death, winner-takes-all gripping drama which goes all the way to the bitter end!
