By Brighton Mutebuka
Caution – Very Long Read!
After years of political shadow boxing, Zim’s arch rivals, political titans & ex band of brothers ED & Chiwenga’s power struggle which had been bubbling in the earth’s political “magna chamber” finally exploded & spilled into the open yesterday at the nation’s formerly pre-eminent Amphitheatre of fallen heroes.
There, Chiwenga finally rolled up his shirt’s sleeves & marked the battle lines in a signal to his supporters & ED that he was finally ready to match him stride for stride for Zim’s coveted but treacherous political throne.
In a speech pregnant with political meaning & ambition, he fired a thinly disguised broadside at ED & his acolytes.
Breaking Down Chiwenga’s Speech – Chiwenga’s “Manifesto?”
Chiwenga grabbed the moment with both hands & took full advantage of the political robes he was wearing & ED’s absence to project power & conduct political theatre of the highest order.
He deployed Justin Mupamhanga’s burial tribute speech as a double edged sword – in one instance a powerful allegory to rebuke ED – and in another to act as a clarion call to his regiment to get ready to enter into battle.
The first segment of the speech is fairly run of the mill stuff & lacks drama.
The drama begins on the eight stanza when he uses the backdrop of the liberation struggle to signal that the collective aspiration for a free, prosperous & food secure Zimbabwe had remained elusive – referencing the liberation song:
“tose tichanoguta kumusha muZimbabwe yakasununguka.”
He takes this a notch further, and effectively castigates ED’s regime for being: “greedy, selfish, corrupt, egocentric, narrow minded & tribalistic”, which is pretty scathing by any definition.
He goes on to refer to the importance of the dream of a “shared future,” with “equal opportunities” and once gain takes a swipe at ED for fronting a culture of “Zvehubvanzu-ubvanzu kudya kwemumhi,” which he says: “takazviramba!” during the liberation struggle.
Showing a deft attempt at disingenuity, he feigns to take inspiration from ED’s choreographed & hollow mantra of “leaving no one and no place behind,” which he twists & pivots into a full blooded frontal attack on the “mad rat-race” to plunder & pillage and then warns that “Corruption has to end.”
Likewise, he pretends to pay homage to ED’s another hollow mantra of “Nyika inovakwa nevene vayo,” which he once again inverts & reformulates as “nyika ino dzivirirwa nevene vayo …”
Stretching the symbolism to a crescendo, Chiwenga admonishes ED for his reckless, dangerous & highly destabilising 2030 agenda, & reminds him that Zimbabwe “inhaka yemusiyidzanwa,” which is clearly a desperate plea to ED for an orderly succession / transition / political relay which will likely fall on tone deaf ears.
He rouses his base by reminding them that “we are our own liberators,” in a bid to warn ED of the choppy waters that lie ahead for him if he fails to head his counsel about passing on the leadership baton.
He pointedly asks ED, “Akakunda, Cde Top Ten. Iwe uri kuiteyi, uchaiteyi muhofisi yaugere,” which is another desperate attempt at reminding ED about the importance of leaving an enduring legacy whilst he still can.
Again switching between admonishment & deference to ED akin to administering poison laced with candy, Chiwenga refers to one of ED’s favourite pipe dreams – the Upper Middle-Income Economy mantra, before twisting the knife via his most lethal dose yet:
“Our vision 2030 is for all of us, kwete dzamunoti mbinga! Kuhondo taidziti zvigananda: those who grow big tummies through ill-gotten wealth and questionable morals!”
The overriding political consensus is that the above chilling warning is likely to be directed at Wicknell Chivayo – who has caused universal moral outrage with his ostentatious display of what is considered to be illicitly obtained wealth likely made possible with ED’s protection.
Political Significance Of The Speech
They say timing is everything in politics. When ED ostensibly took his official annual leave and allocated Chiwenga a measly & controversial 10 days as an Acting Head Of State in comparison to what Kembo Mohadi was offered, the former is likely to have banked on it being a quiet and uneventful period which would not rock the political fundamentals until his return.
Yet, as former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan once noted when asked what the greatest challenge for a statesman was, “events” tend to have a life of their own.
In this instance, as fate would have it, “events” conspired against ED’s hitherto neatly laid political roadmap.
The political gods gifted Chiwenga with two high profile “events” at the Amphitheatre albeit in tragic circumstances.
That platform was fully exploited by Chiwenga & allowed him to dramatically up the ante & upstage ED.
Having been repeatedly forced to play second fiddle to the 2030 bandwagon (thereby creating an impression of a fait accompli) & operate from the shadows, Chiwenga desperately needed such an opportunity to now only throw down the gauntlet at ED but also inject a sense of defiance, conviction & commitment to the cause to his brigade – and to his arch protagonist, ED – to effectively signal that the battle was still on!
Those events created the perfect decoy & backdrop – as they allowed Chiwenga to hide behind the official state events tag to try & project himself as a statesman while simultaneously launching his political manifesto, mobilising his base & sending a powerful message to ED, Mudha & crew that it’s all to play for in the succession race.
It’s important to avoid reading the events in isolation. It’s key to note that there echoes of the possibility of co-ordination between team Chiwenga & a section of the War Vets led by the aptly named “Cde Bombshell” Blessed Runesu Geza who held an explosive, no holds barred & provocative press conference which left ED effectively politically naked reeling from the unprecedented attacks.
Both teams highlighted key themes, namely unbridled corruption, greed and ill-advised attempts at vandalising the constitution to secure an effective life presidency for ED and the potential to establish a family dynasty.
Wither The Opposition?
There is at present effectively no genuine political opposition in Parliament.
ED put paid to that via his shameless proxy, Sengezo Tshabangu, pursuant to the 2030 agenda.
Indeed Chiwenga is only able to mount such a challenge to ED because of his deep & enduring ties to the deep state, which he cultivated while he was at the helm of the military stretching many years.
It is that which equips him with the necessary tools to rival & counterstrike ED’s pernicious hold on the intelligence & securocracy sectors to devastating effect.
There can be no doubt that Zimbabwe’s most popular politician remains
@nelsonchamisa
, who is well placed to win any free, fair and credible election that is held in Zimbabwe as the rapturous applause he received at a recent funeral that he attended showed.
He is currently in the throes of rebuilding his political spaceship but this will likely take time and face challenges in catching up to a politically fluid / fast paced environment.
Yet it also remains the case that the political fundamentals of Zimbabwe’s political terrain linked to its liberation struggle legacy and conflation of state and party lines means that state institutions remain captured by ZANU PF, rendering power transfer an unwieldy & fragile enterprise for some time to come.
If the starting point is a universal acceptance that ED held an illegitimate election (in light of
@SADC_News
SEOM Final Report) and is an illegitimate leader who unlawfully destroyed the structural integrity of the then opposition CCC using captured state institutions, then it follows that Chamisa would have to be recognised as the bona fide opposition leader and allowed to reconstitute his parliamentary caucus to the state that it was prior to Tshabangu’s antics.
If there is to be a political settlement, it would have to take place based on those terms. This is particularly significant in light of Cde “Bombshell” Geza’s understanding of what Tshabangu’s antics served.
You cannot on one hand rail against ED and hold him out as an illegitimate leader as Cde “Bombshell” & his team did, and on the other pretend as if he is a legitimate leader whom Chiwenga can seamlessly & constitutionally succeed, regardless of the sham election he presided over for patently clear reasons.
Zimbabweans are not prepared to accept another November 2017 charade. It’s either Cde “Bombshell” & Chiwenga are being sincere about reclaiming the country’s destiny & promise from ED and his corrupt cabal or they are revising the same script of another game of musical chairs banking on the povo’s legendary gullibility.
If there is one thing ED has taught Zimbabweans well, it is that soaring rhetoric is just that – hollow & empty. We have seen that game before, especially from a power hungry politician who has been part of the ruling elite since independence, so we are sceptical, and rightly so.
If a covenant with Zimbabweans exist as Chiwenga claims, more so a sacred one, it follows that there is a great deal more Zimbabweans will want to see on the ground before forming an opinion.
This is particularly because Chiwenga himself has a chequered history and many rightly fear him and are terrified that if he ever came anywhere near assuming such a powerful office, he could sensationally eclipse ED.
That is clearly the last thing Zimbabweans neither want nor deserve!
The are concerns about his role during Gukurahundi, as well as during the political convulsions which took place in 2000, 2002, 2008, 2018 and 2019, amongst others and the egregious human rights violations which were visited on opposition supporters.
There is no objective indication that Chiwenga genuinely and sincerely embraces democracy.
It’s more likely that he is cut from the same cloth with ED on that note, with the main departure point perhaps being on corruption.
His temperament is also a huge concern, as is his propensity for arbitrariness and a perceived absence of a compassionate leadership style, with his treatment of Doctors & Nurses during their strike for inadequate employment conditions particularly alarming – as well as his treatment of the mother of his children and now ex-wife – Marry – which is also jarring.
Why Can’t There Be A Settlement Between ED & Chiwenga to Forestall Potential Blood On The Dance Floor?
Gramsci – Morbid Phenomena – The Old Is Dying & The New Cannot Be Born!
It’s primarily due to a combination of factors. We start with egos – both man have got massive egos and are Alpha Males not given to giving an inch.
They are used to devouring prey, vanquishing / pulverising it and eliciting total submission. Masculinity is a core value matrix.
They stand or fall on their sword in scenes harking back to the origins of time when ambition & testosterone determined mankind’s fate.
ED has got huge financial interests to protect for him, his acolytes & family. He is the ultimate transactional President prone to hob knobbing with all sorts of characters as long as it advances his political & economic interests.
The Joao Lourenco Angolan precedent potentially unnerves ED, given that Chiwenga appears to be his own man & prone to charting his own independent path should he prevail.
We also have the Marry Chiwenga criminal matter which saw evidence being led in court by a South African medical doctor – and being accepted by the court – which essentially laid charges of ED being caught up in a sensational plot to murder Chiwenga!
We have also got the unresolved White City Stadium attempted assassination incident with accusations & counter accusations flowing in both directions – whose investigation ED recently mysteriously tried to resuscitate!
Then there is the betrayal itself following their infamous political pact in November 2017 which referred to ED having committed to serving only 1 term before giving up power for Chiwenga which never materialised – thereby creating a sense of grievance and political debt.
You have also got ED’s henchmen like Eddie Cross, MacMillan & Chris Mutsvangwa, amongst others, regularly making reckless utterances ridiculing Chiwenga – which is triggering & acts as a lightning rod in his quest for power.
Finally, there are reports that Chiwenga has always been a political General with presidential ambitions – so he could never contemplate stepping aside or giving up what he considers to be his destiny!
Chiwenga also understands that for him to take power or be “born” ED & what he stands for have to be dismantled or “die” politically per Gramsci.
It’s why Chiwenga is threatening to target the likes of Wicknell & address the scourge of corruption, which he considers a “security threat.”
This is why we currently have a stalemate or “interregnum” and “the new cannot be born.”
Conclusion – Is It Over For ED?
The short answer is no. I have previously referred to both protagonists as apex predators.
While many had previously written off Chiwenga and considered him to be a spent force, I had repeatedly warned against such superficial analysis.
Many simply overlooked that Chiwenga had to stay patient and keep his cards close to his chest. He had to let ED show his hand first.
He had to play the role of an insurgent. He had time and the Constitution on his side. It had to be a waiting game until such a time that it was plain for the whole country to see & ED could no longer plausibly claim ignorance of the 2030 agenda.
Once that was clear, there came a point that silence was now potentially capable of being perceived as cowardice & capitulation by both friend & foe – that’s the dangerous moment that he was confronted with in the lead up to the “events” that I have alluded to above.
He has now successfully navigated that potentially perilous & decisive moment. At the Heroes’ Acre, for the first time, there was clear evidence of pro-Chiwenga planning, co-ordination & mobilising.
We finally heard our very own pro-Chiwenga jingle – borrowed from the “Siyanai naChamisa!” It’s finally out in the open – with his own partisans strategically located in the “gunners” section, beyond the reach of any pro-ED the law enforcement personnel.
This is the moment I had always warned about – the descent into dangerous escalation – almost the “Sarajevo” moment.
The whole thing had shades of the Grace Mugabe booing episode which precipitated Robert Mugabe’s ignominious end.
When egos are bruised, tempers usually fray & miscalculation ceases to be a distant prospect, which tends to open the floodgates for drama.
I have previously referred to ED as a figure of history, which caused mzaya George Charamba to get over excited.
I repeat that assessment, which is meant as a factual observation, not a compliment. We can be sure that ED will hit back at a moment of his choosing. There will be no capitulation.
He will continue to plead ignorance to the 2030 agenda. This is meant to be his get out of jail card, so that if he is ultimately unsuccessful, he will sacrifice Mudha & crew – and pretend as if he never even for once contemplated the dastardly deed.
The reason why Chiwenga also pretended to be complimentary towards ED in his speech while leaving Bombshell for the more unsavoury stuff is to maintain the pretence of cordiality – effectively a façade so that the veneer of an official working relationship can be maintained while the machinery of government grinds on in the background.
Both will now escalate surveillance levels on each other drawing upon their vast assets in the belly of the deep state – ED likely mostly C.I.O, P.I.S.I, FAZ & Ferrets, while Chiwenga it will probably be mostly MID & War Vets, though at this point it’s unclear how big is the backing “Bombshell” & team command.
The party & state institutions will now be split across the two factions. You will likely continue to see both attending government functions together – keeping each other close while plotting on steroids takes place as events ebb & flow in a topsy-turvy affair.
They will both need to hold their nerve. Meanwhile, I thought I saw the cameras at the Heroes’ Acre catching a despondent & head down facing Christopher Mutsvangwa …
I always warned that there was a reason why ZANU PF had never had a peaceful transition / handover of power since each formation and that this was always going to come back to haunt it, and by extension, the country.
Many young vakarashis / ED’s social media propagandists were eerily quiet on all online platforms. They were in paralysis mode, totally unsure how to navigate this latest Game of Thrones – Zimbabwean version.
The choice appears to be a totalitarian Chiwenga with War Vets & the military at the core of his regime minus the corruption or with reduced corruption v ED’s corruption riddled regime pursuing a life presidency and potential family dynasty!
The outcome is simply too close to call. Chiwenga wants his pound of flesh. He wants his turn. He is aghast about the scale of the betrayal. In desperation, he has tried to appeal to an imaginary conscience he thinks ED has but the tragic reality is that there is none – and so it will have to be naked political combat to the very end! May the best man win!
*Brighton Mutebuka is a Zimbabwean lawyer and political analyst based in the UK
