A senior Zanu PF official who is close to President Emmerson Mnangagwa and regularly meets him has told The NewsHawks that the President is increasingly agonising and anxious over who should succeed him when he goes whether in 2028 or beyond as the clock fast ticks towards the crucial Zanu PF annual conference in Mutare from 13-18 October.
Three names featuring prominently: Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander Phillip Valerio Sibanda, businessman tycoon Kudakwashe Tagwirei and Zanu PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa.
Some of Mnangagwa’s allies are now also talking about First Lady Auxillia Mnangagwa and Jacob Mudenda, the Speaker of Parliament and Zanu PF secretary-general.
The current succession matrix somewhat defies Zanu PF’s traditional ethnic and identity politics with a new regional faultlines being the battlefront.
Zanu PF did not originate from identity politics alone, but its foundation and continued political strategy have been significantly shaped by it. Identity politics, in the local context, has been driven by three key factors: racialised nationalism, ethnicity and tribal contestations, and liberation entitlement.
Zanu PF has consistently exploited these dynamics to consolidate power and maintain its narrative as the nation’s sole legitimate leader, although that has been widely disputed and rejected from the beginning.
Although the conference is not elective, it will give pointers on the escalating succession race, with the 2027 congress being the succession political high-water-mark.
Insiders say Mnangwagwa prefers the congress route as he thinks that will be the best and smoothest way to yield his successor and defeat other pretenders to the throne, particularly his bitter rival Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga.
Chiwenga, who helped remove the late former president Robert Mugabe through a coup in November 2017 and install Mnangagwa, is the President’s mostly likely successor, although he does not want him.
Chiwenga has deep military roots and powerful networks to swing it.
But Sibanda, who is coming into frame, is now strongly emerging as Mnangagwa’s preferred successor, followed Tagwirei and Mutsvangwa, according to the President’s close ally.
Sibanda’s political career and path will become more clearer from next month at the sunset of his long military career.
Mnangagwa tried to propel Sibanda into politics in 2023 at the Zanu PF annual conference in Gqero, as he wanted to make him a politburo member, but was blocked by Zanu PF and civil actors.
The plan was to introduce him to politics while he was still serving as Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander.
Sibanda, a Midlander with a Zapu and Zipra background, has military leverage and liberation struggle credentials, Tagwirei has money and Mutsvangwa history and political experience.
Auxillia Mnangagwa is being proposed by some around the President – who is reportedly reluctant to entertain that, while others mention Mudenda in the succession race with growing possibility.
While the situation remains touch-and-go, what is clear though is that Mnangagwa does not want Chiwenga.
Chiwenga and his allies have been openly hostile and pushed back against attempts to extend Mnangagwa’s term.
This is heightened succession infighting.
Last month, Mnangagwa’s planned trip to the United Nations General Assembly trip was cancelled after Chiwenga presented the President with a corruption dossier implicating his inner business circle.
Mnangagwa balked at travelling, but hit back by reshuffling the decision-making politburo, removing Chiwenga’s allies, particularly Obert Mpofu who was the party secretary-general.
The succession issue in Zanu PF has always been a contentious one, often intensifying as the end of an incumbent’s term or retirement nears.
Mnangagwa and his business allies want someone who will protect their families, financial interests and guarantee their safety when the incumbent goes.
Furthermore, Mnangagwa also wants protection over human rights abuses he is accused of perpetrating since 1980 and other excesses in power.
While Mnangagwa has publicly denied seeking to extend his rule beyond his 2028 second term limit to 2030 or a third term, the succession battle is currently intensifying within the ruling party.
Though Mnangagwa’s final term ends in 2028, his inner circle’s calls for an extension have been widely perceived as a proxy war over who will succeed him.
Newshawks
