By Brighton Mutebuka
Chiwenga Still Remains Formally Unexpelled – But To What End?
The major take away of the day is that a clearly unwanted Chiwenga (by ED & his acolytes) still retains his position in the party & government today.
That state of affairs remains as dangerous for ED as it is for Chiwenga.
Whilst ED, as the appointing authority has got the power to expel him, it still remains extremely dangerous to execute such a move.
It’s a lesson Robert Mugabe learned too little too late & at great personal cost. In politics, there is always the law of unintended consequences.
There are some variables that are virtually impossible to quantify on the political calculus – risk wise.
Executive Power, Legitimacy & Political Narratives
At the moment, ED has got Executive power – but that is never absolute. That power cannot be unleashed with reckless abandon / willy nilly, particularly against a political & military titan like Chiwenga.
In addition to the battle over raw power, there is also contestation over narratives – with Chiwenga’s “zvigananda” / corruption narrative appearing to have been given added impetus by today’s explosive alleged report by the South African authorities on Wicknell Chivayo’s alleged illicit financial dealings there in the Ren Form CC saga.
That liberation struggle lexicon has clearly captured the imagination of the nation and been weaponised to project a clear dividing line between those who are pro-2030 and those who are not.
It is indeed not surprising that ZANU PF’s Political Commissar, Machacha today tried to reclaim the narrative on the origins of the term and its application.
That attempt appears to be too little too late, felt forced & fabricated, and will predictably fail to gain traction.
The narrative is key to claiming moral superiority & the legitimacy which flows from it.
At this point in time, it is difficult to see how sustainable it is long term for ED & his regime to overcome Chiwenga in a straight shoot out over power – but without winning the “soul” of the party and the morality & narrative battle.
If we flip that argument – it is currently extremely challenging to see Chiwenga’s path to grabbing Executive power from ED & his acolytes – which does not involve some sort of ingenuity which totally blindsides every one.
In short, one desperately needs the political currency that the other possesses to truly emerge triumphant.
Donald Rumsfeld, Calvary & Vascular Dementia
A current known unknown, (Donald Rumsfeld – ex American Secretary of Defense parlance) is the true scale of the threat that Chiwenga poses to ED from the residue of his long service / helm in the military & in recent times, in the government.
Given the intricacies & dynamics of how power is exercised in both party & state institutions, received wisdom suggests that some residue potentially exists.
What is unclear is the nature and extent of that residue and how effective the measures ED has predictably taken to contain them are.
Additionally, it is also difficult to believe that after the warning that Robert Mugabe gave Chiwenga during the delicate power handover negotiations at State House in November 2017, (about ED’s legendary capacity to confound & deceive,) Chiwenga would have been so gullible & naive as to neglect retaining his own cavalry to call upon in such a delicate moment as now.
Finally, there is the added intrigue of ED’s alleged mental infirmity & advanced age, which makes it difficult to assess what impact it will have short & long term, (2030 is very far away) on ED’s political fortunes.
There is the ever present risk of ED winning the short term battle, but ultimately losing the war itself – so there are various permutations of a fluid nature involved.
Conclusion
As I have previously ventilated, it’s a topsy turvy affair. As long as Chiwenga remains in the equation, he will continue to trigger trepidation, nightmares, paranoia & panic in ED’s camp.
That is why they are likely to go for the jugular – yet that could be their own undoing. Either way, the intrigue continues unabated & the risks of monumental calculations remains very high!
The End
*Brighton Mutebuka is a UK based Zimbabwean lawyer and political analyst
