Some Inconvenient & Unpopular Truths About The Current Zim Succession Battle! *Warning* *Long Read* *Not For The Faint Hearted* Caution – “Kumhanya Handi Kusvika!” Amnesia O’clock Anyone?

A fatal habit Zimbabweans should desist from forthwith is to conflate holding Chiwenga to account with supporting ED or “Zviganandas.”

It’s perfectly reasonable to interrogate what kind of Zimbabwe emerges from the current conflagrations and to do it now, alongside criticising “zviganandas.”

That would be borne out of the desire to avoid repeating the same mistake again – eradicating a premature tendency to embrace a political actor & give them a messianic status – only to turn against that same actor & condemn them further down the road.

Once power is acquired, bargaining power is lost irredeemably, hence why the pre-power accusation stage is the most important. The campaign to eradicate corruption is noble, in the national interest & deserving of a clarion call, yet governing a country requires a skills set going beyond that.

The True Cause Of The Current Crisis – A 1963 Problem Zimbabwe is knackered & on its knees. It deserves genuine, credible & lasting change. Yes, fighting corruption is a crucial battle, especially given the frightening levels we have seen under ED‘s regime – but it is equally important to avoid sleep walking into another disaster due to the absence of prefabricated guardrails.

The cause of the current crisis is ZANU PF‘s inability to handle transitions of power from one leader to another since its formation. It is not the only party in Zimbabwe. It simply has a disproportionate impact on national affairs as a direct result of the legacy of the liberation struggle, which saw the party blurring the lines between the state & the party.

Theoretically/ superficially & Constitutionally, Zimbabwe is a democracy which provides for leaders to be replaced through fair & fair elections run by an independent body.

Realistically though, successive ZANU PF leaders have thwarted the holding of democratic, free, fair & credible elections for their own selfish ends while pretending to safeguard the nation’s “sovereignty.”

For many generations, opposition leaders & their supporters have been hunted down like animals, targeted, tortured, maimed & killed after being accused of being “enemies of the state.”

What has undermined that narrative (propaganda) is that, we have seen internal chaos & infighting in ZANU PF itself during fierce succession battles – with similar or worse treatment being meted out to political rivals & new party leaders emerging unelected – often by affirmation.

ED & Chiwenga‘s current epic battle is thus the latest iteration of that playbook. Is Chiwenga’s Anti-Corruption Crusade Credible? The tragic, regrettable and inconvenient truth is it is unlikely. I say this based on a number of reasons: a. The primary one is that Chiwenga has been a ZANU PF stalwart over many years.

He is intimately aware of ED‘s history & ZANU PF‘s idiosyncrasies. b. ED was previously investigated by ZANU PF for corruption & found guilty – only for Bob to save him when he was under the cosh from slain war hero General Solomon Mujuru.

c. Since coming to power via a coup heavily underwritten by Chiwenga himself – ED‘s regime has been regularly plagued by credible & sometimes sensational charges (Gold Mafia, Draxgate etc) of unbridled / rampant corruption which we can reasonably infer Chiwenga has been aware of.

d. In light of the above, it is reasonable to conclude that Chiwenga likely & conveniently looked the other side while under the illusion that he was guaranteed to succeed ED given the investment that he had made over the years.

e. This includes April – June 2008 when they were reported to have acted in common purpose to thwart a peaceful handover of power after Morgan Tsvangirai had sensationally defeated Robert Mugabe.

f. What followed was bloodcurdling mayhem & bloodshed on an industrial scale – pounding the opposition into submission until they had acquiesced to a lop sided GNU. g. The inconvenient truth is that it is likely that both calculated that given Robert Mugabe’s advanced age, they were directly in line to succeed him in the next few years, hence it was in their personal interest to safeguard the regime by preventing what would have likely turned into a catastrophic & irretrievable loss of power.

h. This of course came to pass in November 2017 when Chiwenga personally & unconstitutionally intervened to dethrone Bob & instal ED as Bob‘s successor – despite being warned by Bob himself & being aware of ED‘s wretched history of treachery & betrayal.

i. We went on to have sham elections in 2018 & 2023 with Chiwenga conveniently quiet as he probably saw this as his best pathway to succeeding ED. j. What has simply happened is that ED & Chiwenga‘s relationship has spectacularly & dramatically turned sour after ED betrayed Chiwenga by making a U-turn & choosing to pursue a life presidency.

k. Chiwenga‘s anti-corruption crusade has, unfortunately conveniently coincided with the exact timeline of when the scale of ED‘s betrayal could no longer be masked / hidden, which is what objectively undermines its credence. l. The Constitution is not only being subverted now.

It has been regularly subverted with those culpable often reaping huge political dividends thereby incentivising what we are seeing now. m. Many of the figures Chiwenga accuses of committing egregious corruption are personally known to him and have patronised ZANU PF for many years – his paths and theirs have crossed for very long periods of time, so we are entitled to reasonably conclude that he has always been aware of their conduct & is now only conveniently & expediently vocalising his concerns.

n. It is equally true that Temba Mliswa is a soldier of fortune / hired gun who is tasked with executing a tit-for-tat smear campaign against Chiwenga as a direct response to the “anti-Zvigananda” narrative – itself a double edged & sophisticated smear campaign in its own right! Way Forward 1.

Regardless of the underlying true motives behind it, there is no denying that Chiwenga‘s anti-corruption / anti-Zvigananda crusade has captured public imagination of the “zeitgeist” of the corruption laden era of “vene.”

2. There is a powerful & convenient conflation / “collateral damage” involved in the melting pot this creates. 3. Thus, on one hand, Chiwenga has clearly become a rallying point for the desperate & weary povo who are keen to see the back of ED‘s regime & are united in their belief that it’s not possible for that regime to be removed through free, fair, credible & democratic elections.

4. On the other hand, this presents an enormous political windfall for Chiwenga as he is “lionised” & legitimised via the serious “hardware” he possesses from his military past as the default / only viable candidate capable of matching & ultimately dethroning “Vene” by beating him at his own game – while in the same vein achieving his long stated presidential ambitions!

5. There is great irony in that, whereas just over a decade ago Chiwenga was a villain who thwarted democratic transition with his co-conspirator ED, the very same person is now being cast as a saviour & hero locked in a deadly power struggle with that very person, now being recast in his rather familiar role!

6. Devoid of another viable choice after ED ruthlessly decimated CCC via Tshabangu, the consensus that has emerged around that rallying cry means that the past is now an inconvenient irritation to many. 7. There are eerie echoes between how the povo have rallied behind him & how they did the same with ED as well – also notwithstanding his chequered past.

8. Chiwenga appears destined to prevail primarily due to: i) rabid anti-dynastic sentiments, ii) the deligitimisation of the electoral route by ED & iii) the notoriety & brazenness Zviganandas have earned through their arrogant, relentless, outrageous & ostentatious public display of their ill-gotten gains.

They simply don’t know how to press pause. 9. It is by no means certain that he will prevail given the imposing obstacle he faces in the figure of P.V. Sibanda, the current CDF, which he would have to negotiate delicately.

10. The forthcoming ZANU PF Conference is likely to provide a great deal of clarity – the first in which we have got a pro-ED ZANU PF Secretary General. It’s clear that fireworks are guaranteed. 11. There is alarm about the scarcity of information pertaining to a post ED regime that Chiwenga wants to lead.

12. It is common cause that he is military hardman given to ruling by decree from his army days, with little flexibility and possessing a combustible / volatile temperament which has done very well to mask / regulate in his current showdown with ED.

13. His silence around democracy, good governance, human rights, credible free & fair elections and the sham elections of 2018 & 2023 which brought an illegitimate government suggests that he is pursuing a zero sum game strategy of targeting & inheriting the “throne” in full, without any compromises.

14. If this assessment is correct, should he follow such a course of action, sooner or later we are likely to be confronted with what we currently have now, or worse, a brutal, entrenched & uncompromising regime with little regard for human rights, democracy, good governance & credible elections.

15. There is the added caveat that eradicating corruption, while desperately needed, does not guarantee economic growth, stability & good standards of living. 16. A Chiwenga regime would likely heavily rely on the military & war veterans & quickly squander the goodwill / political capital / short honeymoon that toppling ED will bring.

17. Such a government is unlikely to be used to being held accountable. If challenged, it is likely to revert to what it knows best, you do not need me to spell it out. 18. Any such government would inevitably also seek to rely on support from equally tarnished & controversial figures from ZANU PF with Chiwenga desperate to secure their backing & stay at the helm of the party.

19. We have seen that already through the casting of Obert Mpofu as a victim & anti-corruption stalwart simply by dint of his demotion from the Secretary General’s post on suspicion of being pro-Chiwenga – a development that is risible.

20. What Zimbabwe needs is a reset, a compromise government that brings key figures across the political and civic divide together and cobble up a political settlement that allows the country to heal & the economy to recover, before free & fair elections eventually take place.

Conclusion Jumping on the bandwagon must stop. Lessons should be learnt from the past. It is a patriotic duty to oppose corruption as much as it is to seek clarity on what a post ED regime would look like.

The time to do that is now, not afterwards, when it will be too late. There is no rational reason why Chiwenga is not providing clarity on that at the same time as he is leading what he claims is an anti-corruption crusade. It is perfectly reasonable to passionately oppose Chiwenga if one does not accept what he represents – all the while – while also being opposed to ED, his regime & Zviganandas. It is also reasonable to partially support what he says he is championing, what I call qualified support, but while also demanding that he provides clarity on what a post ED regime looks like in greater detail. It is also perfectly permissible to be neutral / unmoved by Chiwenga‘s current exhortations due to his chequered past, which elicits scepticism & cynicism in equal measure.

The less Chiwenga speaks about democracy, human rights, good governance and the sham elections of 2023, the more it is likely that he will give these short shrift if he succeeds in his dart for power. Such an outcome would present a stillbirth / stalled transition / continuation of the current brand of politics, if not worse. That’s why Shona elders, in their infinite wisdom, cautioned that “Kumhanya hakusi kusvika,” meaning running does not equate to early arrival to one’s destination, given the propensity to meander / take wrong turns / detours / suffer foreseeable & unforeseeable mishaps. It is a civic duty to humanise Chiwenga & criticise him objectively early on, focusing on areas of concern that he should address to our satisfaction without incurring the wrath of his most fervent backers!

A word of caution, enabling regimes to come to power outside the Constitutional framework of free, fair & credible elections invariably gives them the carte blanche to act as they please as their power & legitimacy does not ride on public sentiments / support, so the scope for accountability is virtually non-existent, despite many falling under the illusion that it exists! Needless to say, Chiwenga‘s political ascendancy would be a bitter pill to swallow for many in the opposition movement were it to materialise – but politics is a hard hat area – particularly the rough & tumble of Zimbabwean politics in which morality plays no part!

Curiously enough, Zimbabweans appear to routinely dabble in the art of temporary & convenient “amnesia” from time to time, ultimately making them heavy consumers of doses of “delirium” & its inevitable & short lived “euphoria,” thereby creating cycles of “boom & bust” politics. Meanwhile their latest instalment of a toxic, addictive & abusive relationship with ZANU PF continues unabated.