By Brighton Mutebuka
Zimbabwe’s Constitution says it can’t. ED’s term has to end in 2028. There is no Constitutional provision that allows it’s extension/ amendment & allow him to benefit from it.
- Whatever he is trying to do, it will be unconstitutional, even if he succeeds in doing it.
- The November 2017 coup was only successful because Chiwenga had control of the Army and managed to unleash it & tanks on the streets, there was national & international consensus that Bob was old, potentially physically & mentally incapacitated, had overstayed, had to go & Grace Mugabe was unhinged & could not succeed him.
- Catriona Laing, the ex-British envoy was also highly instrumental in immobilising British, EU & regional opposition to the coup – while selling ED as business oriented, not an ideologue & someone they could work with when re-setting relations & bringing Zim back from pariah status, which ensured that there was a lot of goodwill when ED assumed power.
- Chiwenga clearly put his neck on the line to topple Robert Mugabe. It is common cause that he feels entitled to succeed ED to reap the mother of all dividends from that desperately dicey enterprise.
- From a personal ambition point of view, it is plainly the case that he stands to lose the most from any interruption to the current Constitutional processes.
- He will feel that he has been patient, tolerant and respectful enough.
- Due to his lengthy ties to the deep state which potentially rivals those of ED, he will likely routinely receive his own intelligence concerning ED’s plans well ahead of time.
- Again just like ED, he will likely have sufficient clout/ influence/ reach within the very belly of the deep state to scuttle ED’s plans.
- ED’s grave miscalculation stems from his failure to appreciate that the pursuit of a 3rd term immediately triggers a risk of a direct confrontation with Chiwenga for interrupting his “Great Expectations.”
- It is that potential confrontation which presents an existential threat to both of them due to the uncertainty which arises from a complex array of the variables involved.
- It’s essentially a no-holds-barred, explosive winner takes all duel with an uncertain outcome. There is so much at stake being gambled for so little in return.
- As the “winner” will be engulfed in illegitimacy, unlike November 2017, they will not be accepted nationally, regionally & internationally.
- All roads are then likely to lead to a negotiated settlement guaranteed by regional/ international bodies.
- However, if Chiwenga prevails, (depending on how he does this), he can potentially constitutionally lay claim to the “throne” on the basis that he presents a continuation of the previous regime.
- That can only be a feasible prospect if he somehow ejects ED’s current “checkmate” at the Constitutional Court in the form of Malaba as litigation will clearly be inevitable in such a situation!
- Again if Chiwenga prevails, he has got no option but to distance his regime as far away from ED’s as possible – and take the João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço GColIH’s approach (Angolan President & Dos Santos’s successor from the same ruling party) to sanitise his then new regime’s own reputation from the current stench.
- Such an approach presents a huge risk to ED, his family and acolytes – and potentially informs the current reluctance to give up power.
- I am tempted to conclude that if ED had full confidence that Chiwenga would protect him & any ill gotten wealth he has amassed after exiting power, we would not be seeing these current shenanigans.
- Regardless of how this pans out, there can be no doubt that ED is testing Chiwenga’s soul & cojones to the fullest extent humanly possible!
Conclusion
Everything else we are currently seeing is collateral damage in this vicious and highly dangerous power struggle. The political intrigue is certainly gathering momentum.
At the moment, it’s still delicately hanging just on the margins of the political shadows, finely poised and too early to tell who lands the fatal & decisive blow, how & when. But make no mistake …. it’s coming!
*Brighton Mutebuka is a UK based lawyer and political analyst
