Renowned political analyst Dr Pedzisai Ruhanya says the possible political transition scenarios post-2023 elections will be shaped by two main factors: (i) the nature and extent of the securocratic state and (ii) cohesion and resolve of democratic forces in Zimbabwe before, during and after 2023 elections.
He says the securocratic state is characterized by capture of and militirisation of ZANU-PF and the judiciary.
Ruhanya posits that the Zimbabwe Eectoral Commission (ZEC) remains captured, as its human factor is closely associated with ZANU-PF – latest ZEC commissioners speak to this, saying the same is with the Judiciary which he says remains tainted and populated with sympathizers of ZANU-PF and the military.
“The state media remains captured, militarized and biased. Traditional leaders in charge of the rural constituency remain captured and biased in favor of ZANU-PF thus closing the entry points for the opposition. Government programmes continue to be used for ZANU-PF campaign,” he says.
Ruhanya points out that to make matters worse, the opposition remains fragile in the rural constituency due to the patronage system and the militarisation of village politics and this constituency has been very instrumental in its parliamentary defeat.
“In line with Bratton and Van de Walle (1994; 1997)’s conceptualization of political transitions in neopatrimonial regimes, and in cognizance of the securocratic state background above, I argue that four political transition scenarios are possible in Zimbabwe.
“A flawed transition is the most likely outcome of the 2023 election in Zimbabwe. This is a most likely situation where the incumbent ZANU-PF party working with the military, traditional leaders and ZEC rig the election and suppress post election protests.
“A blocked transition: This is a likely scenario where the election will result in a deadlock between the opposition and ZANU-PF over electoral reforms, reform of ZEC, transparency of the electoral process, violence and military involvement.
“Precluded transition: This is least likely scenario where the ZANU-PF government bans the main opposition, unleash violence on democratic forces, closes the public space resulting in a wide spread civil unrest. The civil unrest is contingent on the opposition’s resolve,” he says.
Meanwhile, Ruhanya says what should be done is that there is need to invest in electoral reform advocacy at all levels locally and regionally, adding that this can include involvement of regional organizations to supervise the conduct of elections to ensure they adhere to SADC guidelines on democratic election.
“What can be done, there is need for adequate training and deployment of polling agents from democratic forces to guard and monitor the election at every polling station. This can be used to collect all election data for parallel tabulation and for use in challenging the theft,” he adds.
He says a democratic transition is an unlikely scenario where the opposition wins power and the ruling ZANU-PF hand over power in a peaceful manner. This depends on the role of international election observers, the resolve of the opposition to defend the vote.
Ruhanya says these scenarios help politicians to plan. “They are not necessarily real but largely normative. These projections can be changed through hard work. We should not discount the Mystery of Politics and its three controversies; the roles of death, accidents and big events,” he concludes.
Zwnews
