By Brighton Mutebuka
(Warning – Very Long Read)
- The Corrupt Cabal v The “Clean Cabal” Is A False Debate!
a. It’s a false & contrived debate to say that the choice before us is simply the corrupt v the anti-corrupt faction in ZANU PF.
b. It’s transcends that simple narrative to also touch on the capacity to deliver a just, democratic & inclusive society – and deliver long term economic growth that can bring prosperity & uplift living standards for generations to come.
c. We have got a generational duty to focus not just on the then & now, but the future as well.
d. We have earned that right through being repeatedly plunged to the depths of suffocating poverty through grand corruption, economic incompetence on an epic scale, misplaced priorities & simple rank governance incompetence & incapacity over the past 4 decades.
- ZANU PF’s Bust & Bust Economic Policies Over The Decades!
i. Since independence, the goal of running government & the economy competently has simply eluded all iterations of ZANU PF governments.
ii. They have had a monopoly over hard state power but they have abused that power & failed to convert that into competent & transformational governance.
iii. There is currently no indication that either faction will ever master the requisite skills, capacity & sense of duty needed to qualitatively deliver Zimbabwe’s true promise.
iv. Grand corruption is abominable but it is not the only ill afflicting Zimbabwe. Arresting it is an absolute necessity, but once that’s done, other areas will also need to be addressed urgently & competently.
- Which One Is The Lesser Evil – Family Dynasty Or Rank Authoritarianism?
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The debate is currently framed in such a way that ED’s 2030 misadventurism is defined as being motivated by a deluded, selfish & misconceived medieval tilt at a life presidency & establishing a family dynasty while Chiwenga is being cast as the knight in shining armour out to torpedo ED’s plans.
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The actual debate for me is that – given that Chiwenga is a military man steeped in autocratic tendencies, not keen to compromise or show flexibility – with heavy baggage arising from being a ruthless enforcer to preserve the status quo over the past 3 or so decades, if he triumphs, will there not be a catastrophic regression from the current perilous situation?
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The context of that regression is a potential further erosion of democratic norms and economic dislocation.
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If that takes place would Zimbabwe then be better or worse off? If there is no clarity in that situation then is it a qualitative improvement worth sacrificing everything or deserving of mass or popular support? If that’s the case, is that a real choice?
4/ The Doctrine Of Reasonable Foreseeability In The Saga!
a. Zimbabwe deserves inspiring, transformational and enduring change. It’s long overdue. The people and the country is knackered. It has suffered enough.
b. The biggest challenge the country faces is that ZANU PF & the military wield enormous power & influence – controlling the levers of state power, but electorally, their fortunes have waned to such a desperately dire situation that they are unable to ever win any free & fair election.
c. The repeated egregious human rights violations that we witness during elections are simply due to ZANU PF forcing it’s will unlawfully & unconstitutionally so that it prevails and retains power at all costs.
d. In light of this, any “change” that takes place is simply susceptible to a re-enactment of the same choreography & outcome.
e. If Chiwenga succeeds in his mission to topple ED from power, he would still face the same electoral odds – he would retain the same infrastructure – and he would not risk so much to simply give up power via free & fair elections a short while later.
f. All of the above events are reasonably foreseeable & capable of being ventilated now. The people that are cheering Chiwenga on without addressing those questions are have learnt or forgotten nothing from recent history.
g. There is no reason why they cannot support him if they so wish, while also impressing upon the need for him to ensure that if he emerges triumphant, democracy, the rule of law, inclusivity, tolerance & good governance are at the of any such post-ED regime that emerges.
h. Afterall, neither Chiwenga nor his supporters or ED can pretend that ED is a legitimate President who was elected in a free, fair & credible election. In light of this, whatever throne he inherits is equally tainted by dint of illegitimacy from the stolen elections.
- You will ask, but Mutebuka, too much theory, be real, “zvigananda” must go, what is the way forward?
Discussion
i. My proposition is that, to achieve a stable, just, democratic and prosperous country, we must first come to terms of the true reality and cost of Zimbabwe’s liberation struggle legacy.
ii. That feted and heroic struggle is the source of our problems. It is from that struggle that we inherited intolerance, sycophancy, ethnic politics, autocracy, militarised rule, corruption, impunity, cultism & an absence of a culture of a peaceful handover of power from one leader to the next.
iii. Yes, ED must go, but it’s not enough. It is reasonable, responsible, rational & legitimate to demand & expect more to avoid a recurrence.
iv. The question that I will pose to those donating a carte blanch / blank cheque to Chiwenga like was done to ED is why? What is the rational explanation for that behaviour?
v. Why are you vociferously offering support without attaching any pre-conditions? Why are you unable to do both? How does that disadvantage Chiwenga to say to him – look, we are supporting you but we learned from the past so we will not countenance a repetition of what we saw under ED?
vi. I will pose another loaded question. Since ED & Chiwenga were bosom buddies until their recent fallout, is he really a victim & a hero if he overcomes ED using the unconstitutional template that they clandestinely curated together over many years for the very same purpose of subverting the people’s sovereign will?
vii. If he succeeds ED, quashes corruption but struggles to deliver & people start opposing him & he resorts to type, on what grounds would you be entitled to criticise him if you enthusiastically embraced him already knowing his autocratic traits prior to his rise to power?
- Proposed Solution – Steeped In Controversy – Political Settlement Of Hardware & Software!
a. Recognised the historical and political reality of the power that Geza, Chiwenga & the military in general presently wield in our body politic – and equally recognising the fact that they would never win a free & fair election & freely relinquish power, exacerbated by the unwillingness of the povo to take to the streets to stake their claim in the country’s future, a political settlement is the only solution.
b. Such a settlement can take the form of a Transitional Authority and bring together the “Hard Ware” that Chiwenga and his military faction bring to the table, and the “Software” that emanates from the popular mandate that a genuine opposition movement such as one led by Nelson Chamisa brings.
c. I wish to make it categorically clear that this is my own proposition for a soft landing. I have neither been approached nor briefed by anyone in respect of this highly controversial proposition.
d. Such a proposition would require a legally binding political settlement with Chiwenga, his military faction & ZANU PF that at the end of that agreement, as they would have finally achieved their dream as War Veterans & the military of ruling Zimbabwe & experience power – they should then unyoke the country and allow it to experience genuine democracy via free, fair & credible elections.
e. How long that process lasts is up to all the relevant protagonists involved.
f. The above proposition only makes sense if Chiwenga’s faction emerges triumphant and is genuinely willing to embark on a genuine process of rapprochement, national healing, power sharing, nation building & transformation – and garnering genuine legitimacy & goodwill to deliver the true promise of the liberation struggle / independence.
g. In that settlement, morality, would be irrelevant. It would simply be a question of recognising the political reality of the immense power Chiwenga & the military faction possess without necessarily having the relevant nous to transform the fortunes of the country, leading to a state of compromise perhaps akin to the Ukraine – Russia conflict.
h. It would bring peace and stability, save lives & resources through sparing the country the charade of going through a choregraphed “election” with a pre-determined outcome, while allowing Chiwenga’s generation to age with dignity & be phased out through the passage of time.
i. If his faction is either willing or uninterested, we would simply have an ED 2.0 reloaded situation – potentially of autocracy on steroids laced with reduced corruption.
Conclusion
ED is highly unlikely to fall on 31 March 2025 or soon afterwards. I do not see him as the kind of personality to wilt in the face of demonstrations.
My assessment is that he is the kind of political force that can only yield to “hard power” manifesting itself through the security apparatus after a belated realisation that he has lost control.
I also expect him to “dig in” and invest every morsel in his bone to ruthlessly crush those hellbent on toppling him.
I expect that his dream of 2030 will suffer a still birth given the formidable obstacles in his path. As I have previously opined, he is simply up against another Apex Predator in Chiwenga, who knows him well enough to match him stride for stride.
What is clear is that ED will fall. What is unclear is how this will unfold and when. As he is unlikely to go on a whimper, I expect it to dragged out, extra ordinarily dramatic & riveting to the very end.
If the two powerful protagonists take each other out, then Zimbabwe is the ultimate beneficiary, and can look into the future with a sense of hope and optimism that a new page can be turned.
If ED triumphs, it’s a political disaster of unimaginable proportions. If Chiwenga triumphs and embraces the path that I have highlighted above, then there is guarded optimism about the country’s prospects.
If he chooses to go it alone, then we will return to the era of autocracy, doom & gloom, well into the next 2 decades and beyond!
The reality is that the public are simply bridesmaids in the demo / uprising called by Geza. Whether or not this succeeds is not dependent on the numbers that will turn out on the streets, but on what proportion of the deep state has tectonically shifted from ED to Chiwenga’s side.
That is what will ultimately deliver victory or calamity, depending on who will emerge triumphant!
*Brighton Mutebuka is a UK based Zimbabwean lawyer and political analyst
