Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni has revealed that South Africa faces a potential coup risk among other security threats, but she assured the nation that the situation is under control with ongoing monitoring and mitigation measures in place to protect the country’s stability.
Historic Release of National Security Documents
In a media briefing on Tuesday, 15 July 2025, following post-budget vote discussions, Ntshavheni announced the public release of key national security documents for the first time in South Africa’s history.
These include the National Security Strategy 2024 to 2028 and the National Intelligence Estimate 2019 to 2024, along with its accompanying National Intelligence Priorities.
The minister explained that this move aligns with Section 198 of the Constitution, which emphasises national security, accountability, transparency, and resilience.
Ntshavheni said: “This is the first time in the history of the Republic of South Africa that such instruments of national intelligence are being released in a manner that is both transparent and structured while maintaining the required integrity for national security.
It is not only a profound step forward but a clear paradigm shift in how the intelligence community relates to the state to parliament and to the people.”
The documents stem from recommendations in the 2018 High-Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency (SSA) and aim to build a modern, ethical intelligence service.
They are available on the government website www.gov.za and the Presidency’s site www.presidency.gov.za. Current versions of the estimate and priorities remain classified due to security concerns, so the released estimate covers the sixth administration period.
Key Insights from the National Intelligence Estimate
The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) 2019 to 2024 offers a detailed, evidence-based look at strategic threats, risks, and opportunities facing South Africa.
Compiled by the National Intelligence Coordinating Committee (NICOC) under the National Strategic Intelligence Act of 1994, it draws from inputs across the intelligence community, including the SSA, South African Police Service Crime Intelligence (SAPSCI), and Defence Intelligence.
The estimate is structured around five themes: threats to the economy, territorial integrity, authority of the state, well-being of South Africans, and threats from foreign or global arenas.
It addresses issues like illegal immigration, espionage, cyber threats, transnational organised crime, climate security, and domestic instability. These align with the Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) priorities.
Domestic intelligence priorities include investigating threats to South Africa’s economic and business capabilities from domestic and foreign actors, enhancing border security to support the Border Management Authority (BMA), and vetting foreign nationals in strategic state positions.
Ntshavheni noted efforts to reduce border porosity, saying: “And we have been working to support the BMA, the subs and the SNTF in making sure that we limit the porousness of our borders. Unfortunately in our line of business, you don’t go out and say as these numbers are coming out as we’re starting to c the the porousness of our borders that it is our work.
“We always operate behind the scenes and those who don’t like us they We operate in the shadows, but we we prefer to operate behind the scenes and not in the shadows.”
Other priorities involve identifying foreign intelligence activities affecting economic interests, bolstering cyber forensics against illicit financial flows (IFFs) via cryptocurrencies, adjusting cybersecurity postures, conducting vulnerability assessments at critical infrastructure, and investigating terror financing vulnerabilities like border weaknesses and new financial technologies.
The minister highlighted progress in addressing Financial Action Task Force (FATF) deficiencies, leading to South Africa’s grey listing removal efforts, with an on-site inspection scheduled for 29-30 July 2025.
Foreign priorities focus on countering forces undermining South Africa’s African Union chairship, stabilising the SADC region, enhancing UN Security Council engagements, developing anti-espionage frameworks, countering terrorism precursors, and resolving diplomatic tensions with unnamed countries. Ntshavheni urged measuring progress against these priorities across government departments.
Pillars of the National Security Strategy
Endorsed by Cabinet on 13 March 2024, the National Security Strategy promotes a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach, embedding intelligence in foresight, resilience, and crisis prevention. Ntshavheni emphasised:
“And our argument that we are we should not be measured by the number of crisis that we have managed to that we have managed but we must be measured by the number of crisis that have not taken place because it means then we have been effective and in the period that is that we have speaking about of 2019 2024 outside of the 2021 July uprising there have not been any other disruptive threats to the country. Those that have been disruptive is climate change related which nobody has control over.”
The strategy is grounded in human security, economic stability, democratic governance, social justice, and national interest, with eight pillars:
Protection of South Africans (Public Security): Safeguarding well-being, constitutional order, sovereignty, social stability, safety, eradicating corruption, protecting property and rights, and addressing poverty, inequality, unemployment, and racism through social cohesion.
Territorial Integrity: Implementing defence reviews, deterring conflicts, improving military organisation, and boosting mobilisation readiness.
Sovereignty Protection and Projection: Ensuring foreign policy supports development, strengthens national interests abroad, and defines clear red lines.
Economic Security: Enhancing competitiveness, protecting sovereignty, and aiming for growth at or above global rates, supporting economic clusters and businesses.
Cyberspace and Environment Protection: Building risk awareness, stakeholder responsibility, and capabilities; finalising cybersecurity strategy, policy, and bill.
Technology and Innovation: Ensuring independent scientific development, investing in R&D, protecting intellectual property, and promoting education in robotics, data analytics, and indigenous language tech.
Environmental Security: Rational resource use, environmental quality, conservation, balanced exploitation, and climate change mitigation.
Cultural Security: Strengthening cultural sovereignty, preserving heritage, historical truth, building cohesion, identity, and patriotism, countering history falsification.
Ntshavheni stressed preserving apartheid’s historical impact and upholding constitutional equality.
Addressing Coup Risks and Recent Unrest Concerns
The strategy and estimate identify a potential coup risk, but Ntshavheni assured: “You want me to read out for record. But that’s why you’re a journalist. You’ll do the document is fully available publicly. You can have the discussions. I I we can work around how do we do the clarifications if they post clarifications.
“We have listed the risk that that and the risk remember a risk does not necessarily materialize the issues that you you need to identify it and mitigate against it because part one of the risk is the risk of kuda to say there is a potential risk of a kuda we have identified it and we’ve put measures to mitigate against it so that’s why we say to South Africans there will not be anyone attempting to do a coup in South Africa In the last few days or in the last few weeks, there’s not been anyone attempting to do a coup in South Africa. We can say that they not that they are not people planning. They are, but we continuously monitoring them and making sure that we we we deal with it.”
This comes amid protests over President Cyril Ramaphosa’s handling of explosive allegations by KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Lt Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi against suspended Police Minister Senzo Mchunu. 
Mkhwanazi claimed Mchunu colluded with criminal syndicates, interfered in investigations, disbanded a key police unit, and protected figures tied to gangs.  Ramaphosa suspended Mchunu on 13 July 2025, and established a judicial commission of inquiry with three- and six-month reporting timelines, sharing reports with Parliament and the Chief Justice to ensure swift action. 
Parties like the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party and civil society have protested, fearing unrest similar to July 2021.  Ntshavheni dismissed these fears: “How many times since 2021 July uprising have they tried to do mass mobilizations, mass uprisings?
They have tried but the the net joints and the security cluster have managed to to deal with those effectively and they’ve come out to not and that was demonstrating our ability to handle any attempt at an uprising in the country.” 
She linked the inquiry to decontaminating the criminal justice system of corruption, as outlined in the NIE. 
No Threats to G20 Delegates
With South Africa hosting the G20 Summit in 2025, Ntshavheni confirmed no threats to delegates.  Threat assessments are conducted for all meetings, and the security cluster remains vigilant. 
“There’s no single threat to G20 delegates. We we do threats assessments for all the meetings. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a shepherd meeting, ministerial meeting, deputy ministers meetings, officials meeting.
“We do all the the threats assessments in time and we mitigate and there’s not been any threats coming out in in South Africa.” 
The G20 presidency, from December 2024 to November 2025, focuses on global unity, sustainable progress, debt relief, and addressing challenges like climate change and economic instability.
 Despite domestic issues like power and water supply, the government assures robust security. 
Building a Resilient Nation
Ntshavheni thanked intelligence personnel and called for collective responsibility: “National security is all our responsibility.”  She assured: “We are safe in this country the president’s responsibility is to make sure that he gets to the root of it and that’s why he announced that The reports will go to also parliament to the judiciary so that we can then deal with the things that have to be dealt with quick unless we want to join the lynching a mob of lynching one person over the other and taking sides without facts.”
This release fosters public discussion on gaps and improvements, reinforcing South Africa’s commitment to transparency within security bounds.  As the nation navigates evolving threats like hybrid warfare and misinformation, the strategy positions intelligence as people-centred and adaptive. 
Central News South Africa
