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American President Joe Biden is expected to hold a crucial phone call on Wednesday morning with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Israel’s plans to strike Iran.
Meanwhile, critics say Israel basically has three choices: a symbolic strike that Iran will likely ignore, a stronger hit that risks provoking a major response, or a crippling blow that could severely limit Iran’s ability to retaliate.
“They’re likely avoiding the symbolic route—it just doesn’t send a strong enough message. So that leaves either a solid hit or an all-out, high-stakes strike.
“The latter could really set Iran back, giving Israel an edge, but it’s a gamble with big implications for regional stability,” one analyst said.
Why the phone call matters: The call would be the first between Biden and Netanyahu in two tense months, and come as Israel considers major attacks that could significantly escalate its regional war.
Behind the scenes: Netanyahu hunkered down for hours on Tuesday night with senior ministers and the heads of Israel’s military and intelligence services to try to reach a decision about the scope and timing of Israel’s attacks, according to two Israeli officials.
The officials say Israel’s retaliation is expected to be significant, and will likely include a combination of airstrikes on military targets in Iran and clandestine attacks like the one the killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Israel has also weighed potential strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, which Biden signaled he would oppose.
A Netanyahu aide told Axios that once a decision was made, Netanyahu would want to brief Biden.
The other side: “We want to use the call to try and shape the limitations of the Israeli retaliation,” a U.S. official told Axios.
The U.S. official said the U.S. wants to make sure Israel attacks targets in Iran that are significant without being disproportionate.
The big picture: The expected Biden-Netanyahu call would come one week after Iran launched around 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Many were intercepted, but two Israeli air bases sustained some damage to structures, while several missiles landed near the Mossad intelligence headquarters in Tel Aviv but did not cause any damage.
Iran conducted the attack in response to a string of Israeli assassinations on senior Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian officials.
Tehran said its response would end there unless Israel attacked Iran.
Israel, for its part, vowed retaliation.
Both U.S. and Israeli officials believe the tit-for-tat will continue, with Iran responding to Israel’s attack, and the U.S. and Israel having to work together to combat that Iranian response.
State of play: National security adviser Jake Sullivan told Israeli minister for strategic affairs Ron Dermer on Friday that the U.S. expects “clarity and transparency” from Israel about its plans because they carry implications for U.S. forces and interests in the region.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant intended to travel to Washington on Tuesday but the trip was vetoed at the last minute by Netanyahu.
Netanyahu told Gallant his trip wouldn’t be approved he had received a call from Biden and the Israeli security cabinet had approved the attack plans.
The Biden-Netanyahu call was already scheduled before the flare-up between Netanyahu and Gallant, according to a source familiar with the issue.
What’s next: The U.S. officials said Biden and Netanyahu will also discuss the wars in Lebanon and Gaza.
The White House declined to comment.
Axios
