World Bank projects 6.2% recovery for Zimbabwe economy in 2025

Zimbabwe could register 6.2% economic growth in 2025, after the country saw only sluggish growth of 2% last year, the World Bank says in a new report.

In June, the World Bank had forecast growth of 3.3% for 2024 and 3.6% in 2025.

Its latest estimates, in the newly released annual Global Economic Prospects report, are within range of government’s own estimate of 2% in 2024 and forecast of 6% in 2025.

Zimbabwe had banked on better rainfall to lift agriculture by 12.5% in 2025, helping the economy recover from last year’s drought, the worst in over 40 years. But late rains mean agriculture’s anticipated recovery may be slower than expected.

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube says he will wait to the end of the farming season to see whether Zimbabwe needs to revise its 2025 growth outlook.

“We will be able to assess, four months from now, as to what the output looks like and then say whether we maintain the 6% or not,” Ncube says.

According to the World Bank, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to 4.2% in 2025-26, driven by better commodity prices.

But the bank warns that commodity exporters, like Zimbabwe, may suffer from slow growth in China, a major importer of their goods.

“Growth in China could weaken more than expected, with adverse effects on the demand for minerals and metals.

“Lower prices for these commodities, which are the main exports of several SSA countries—many of them low-income countries—would hit these countries especially hard,” the World Bank says. “Furthermore, slower growth in China could reduce Chinese investment in SSA.”

South Africa, the region’s biggest economy, grew by 0.8% last year, according to World Bank’s estimates.

It will grow by 1.8% this year. Zambia grew by 1.2% last year and will grow 6.2% in 2025.

Tanzania expanded 5.4% last year and 2025 projected growth is 5.8%.

Mozambique will maintain 2024 growth of 4% through this year. Botswana’s 2024 growth is estimated at 1%, with a strong recovery of 5.3% expected this year.

NewZwire