Veteran economist ‘predicts’ darkness for Zimbabwe

Celebrated economic analyst Dr Gift Mugano says he foresees economic trouble for the country going forward.

He questions how possible is it for the Government of Zimbabwe to pursue international engagement which is key driving economic development when at home the same govt is harassing the opposition?

He writes:

I am trying to frame how the economy will look like going forward – all I see is darkness. Let me break this down for the layman:

1. How possible is it for the GOZ to pursue international engagement which is key driving economic development when at home the same govt is harassing the opposition?

Recently, CCC MPs didn’t attend the official opening of Parliament by
@edmnangagwa rendering the whole process to a ZANU PF caucus.

Of significance is the fact that millions of Zimbabweans, that is, both those who voted @CCCZimbabwe and those who couldn’t vote for various reasons but have a CCC DNA are in support of this move and will continue to have these kind of protests in the future. It is given that going forward national consensus on national developmental issues will be elusive.

1. Attacks at @SADC_News. This one fascinates me. Zimbabwe is one of the founding members of @SADC_News and has ascended to various protocols under @SADC_News but because this time around it has chosen path that violates the very same agreements we signed because we were caught offside on the recent elections. I hear them talking about being a sovereign country. True we are a sovereign country but to what extent do we return our sovereignty when we commit to regional treaties? Comrades from @ZANUPF_Official forgets that when a country join a regional grouping surrenders a significant share of its sovereignty.

2. Chances of sealing debt resolution have been reduced to zero. Those who remembers the @AfDB_Group President 6 page statement he issued after completing the first round of negotiations he underscored 3 conditions which must be met by Zimbabwe in order to get resolve on our debt.

One of the conditions listed on page 6 was the need for free, fair and credible elections; respect for human rights and implementation of the resolutions of Motlanthe Commission of Inquiry. Because our elections failed the credibility as witnessed by the majority of Zimbabweans and all elections observers (SADC, AU, Commonwealth, EU & Carter Centre), the debt resolution is up in smoke.

1. The economy – in all this drama the economy is watching and massive explosion is looming. In the making of the explosion is the 150% interest rate (which was previously at 200%), 15% interest rate for the USD loans is a thorn in the flesh for businesses, 25% export retention, the unforgiving hand of the informal sector which receive much blessings from @MthuliNcube after liberalizing imports of basic commodities, power outages and high tax regimes powered by draconian taxes such as 2% tax & 1% on foreign payments and international isolation.

A combination of the 3 points above will lead to international isolation. When I look at what is happening today, I can see all the tricks of the Smith Regime of 1965 which we read in history books being replayed today with much perfection.

The modern world including our generation don’t like these kinds of tricks. On the blink of an eye we will be isolated – the modern world respect constitutionalism, human rights and rule of law more than anything else & will not tolerate violators of the same.

We must always remember that we need the world more than it needs us. Yes we are a rich country in terms of natural resources but we don’t control the global financial architecture. We don’t have corresponding banks. Global financial markets are in Frankfurt, New York, London, Sydney, Shanghai & Hong Kong not Harare.

Right now, we are pushing a train without wheels – the wheels were removed by the shameful election, ranting and incessant harassment of people with alternative voices & intellectuals.

Eventually, we will smell the coffee & appreciate that we need a united front – one people, one nation & one vision – constitutionalism will be restored.

I am certain to see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living (Psalms 27: 13) when the will of God is fulfilled in Zimbabwe and real change and transformation is achieved.