Renowned investigative journalist Hopewell Chin’ono says former minister of Foreign Affairs Walter Mzembi’s analysis of the Zimbabwean situation is spot on.
He says as long as the issue is only about CCC and ZANUPF or Chamisa and Mnangagwa, the Harare regime will be triumphant, and this is the truth that citizens need to hear and know.
Chin’ono maintains that the post election crisis requires a broad based alliance led by the Church and including politicians, civil society, business and the region.
“This analysis in the attached tweet by Zimbabwe’s former Foreign Minister,
@waltermzembi is as close to the truth as it gets regarding the Zimbabwean post election disagreements after the shambolic election and how it relates to SADC.
“As long as the issue is only about CCC and ZANUPF or Chamisa and Mnangagwa, the Harare regime will be triumphant, and this is the truth that citizens need to hear and know.
“The post election crisis requires a broad based alliance led by the Church and including politicians, civil society, business and the region.
“1980 happened because there was a crisis that Ian Smith couldn’t contain anymore, 1987 happened because there was a crisis that ZANU couldn’t contain anymore, 2008 happened because there was a crisis that Robert Mugabe couldn’t contain anymore.
“What crisis is there today that Emmerson Mnangagwa can’t contain anymore?
“In its current construct, CCC has no capacity at all to take on Mnangagwa and his State apparatus on his turf because CCC relies on one man to make decisions, and not a powerful collective of scholars, civil society, trade unionists and business people like Strive Masiyiwa that Morgan Tsvangirai had in 2008.
“They could open doors for Tsvangirai internationally to sensitise important people about the crisis, today no such people are there on CCC’s table.
“That is why Dr Ibbo Mandaza was right in his analysis about the tools required to deal with the post election disagreements.
“You need the Church, Civil Society, Political actors, Business and the region without which you will wait for 2028 or a miracle to happen.
“Zimbabwe has brilliant people with the skills to resolve the disputes, but they need to be on the table for that to happen.
“Mnangagwa’s only headache today is the shambolic economy caused by his government’s incompetence and corrupt rule.
“Serious people should say what citizens need to hear, and not what they think citizens want to hear!
“Mnangagwa and ZANUPF have deep pockets to buy their way out of the disputed election if it is left to CCC, ZANUPF and the region alone.”
Mzembi unpacked the Southern African Development Community SADC Troika Communique released yesterday. And below is his analysis:
“Here is my interpretation of yesterday’s @SADC_News Troika Meeting not based on the minutes but based on an analysis of the current “atmospherics” obtaining inside the SADC troika club.
1. A deputation of representation by President of Namibia @hagegeingob and @SuluhuSamia of Tanzania completing the Troika chaired by @Hichilema of Zambia is not good sign for those reading too much into an anticipated SADC solution.
“2. @HHichilema chairing Vice Presidents and officials means a downgrade of Zimbabwe Polls issue to a routine report. 3. Liberation Parties solidarity may have won the day in the charm offensive led by @edmnangagwa
Himself in New York.
“There was definitely a pushback in the bilateral at @UNGA. Picture Mnangagwa paying a courtesy call on Namibia President, at his Hotel Room. Clearly the stakes were high for the mountain to visit Mohammed.
“4. The strategy of buying time until the Zimbabwe Polls dispute issue is stale and overtaken by events may in the end prevail if there is no fresh impetus from the people.
5. It will be assisted by a business as usual approach and a defacto sense of déjà vu as Parliament and Government gets down to five year business. By the time Zimbabwe assumes Chairmanship of SADC the Polls issue may be history.
6. The only issue which may keep reminding people of disputed elections will be a non performing economy. If ZANU PF Government gets it right by extension it will get the Government performance legitimacy. So Mnangagwa simply has to make the economy work.
“7. Zimbabweans cannot subcontract their disputes to SADC which from history is a flat tyre unless there is renewed pressure from the people. A very unlikely prospect.
8. Whilst Zimbabweans suffer from perpetual struggle fatigue so do those seeking to help , they simply back off if abused unless encouraged by the energy of Zimbabweans themselves to have their issues resolved, 2008 being manifest.
9. @ZANUPF_Official is too strong for the Region and its abrasive gun boat Zanufication diplomacy has seen even seemingly bigger brothers turning into its “errand boys” twisted by anti sanctions solidarity .
“10. At the core of this strategy is a siege mentality presented to liberation movements that they face a collective and class existential threat from neoliberals and counter revolutionaries.
The paradox is contemporary generations actually want to liberate themselves from the entitlement of yesteryear liberators and old Revolutions that have lost their way.
“Unfortunately for the young it is a tough fight against a club of incumbents whose parties are highly conflated with the State and it will take more than just zeal and courage but serious resources to undo this repression of black by black.
“It will take a new nationalist construct which these old Revolutionaries cannot conveniently smear as imperialist or neocolonial agents agendas.
“It is time to conceive home made solutions that cannot be faulted but identify with a people so in dire need of relief from the shackles of these old self serving liberators. Goodnight madhodha sibili.”